3. Doing the Win Share Math Yourself

“What The Win Share Stat Is”

Of course, not every game involves the Miami Heat, the Dallas Mavericks, or the Boston Celtics, and there is a lot of predicting that is going to have to go on when you’re talking about how many minutes a given player will play on the average night. It’s tough to know just how many minutes that a given player is going to play, but as the season wears on, it becomes easier to figure out, especially with healthy rosters and regular rotations.

However, the way to really figure this out is to use the WS/48 stat to figure out what the average game will look like for a given roster of players. Here’s an example…

(All stats are averages from the 2012-13 season from Basketball Reference)

Charlotte Bobcats

Kemba Walker: .080 WS/48, plays 35 minutes = 4.78 Win Share

Gerald Henderson: .073 WS/48, plays 31 minutes = 3.87 Win Share

Ramon Sessions: .084 WS/48, plays 27 minutes = 3.87 Win Share

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist: .051 WS/48, plays 26 minutes = 2.27 Win Share

Josh McRoberts: .090 WS/48, plays 31 minutes = 4.77 Win Share

Bismack Biyombo: .031 WS/48, plays 27 minutes = 1.43 Win Share

Jeff Taylor: .039 WS/48, plays 20 minutes = 1.33 Win Share

Jeff Adrien: .064 WS/48, plays 14 minutes = 1.53 Win Share

Reggie Williams: .035 WS/48, plays 8 minutes = 0.48 Win Share

Byron Mullens: .005 WS/48, plays 21 minutes = 0.18 Win Share

Charlotte Total Win Share: 24.5

Oklahoma City Thunder

Kevin Durant: .291 WS/48, plays 39 minutes = 19.4 Win Share

Russell Westbrook: .195 WS/48, plays 35 minutes = 11.6 Win Share

Serge Ibaka: .181 WS/48, plays 31 minutes = 9.58 Win Share

Kevin Martin: .157 WS/48, plays 28 minutes = 7.51 Win Share

Thabo Sefolosha: .146 WS/48, plays 28 minutes = 6.98 Win Share

Nick Collison: .158 WS/48, plays 20 minutes = 5.40 Win Share

Kendrick Perkins: .062 WS/48, plays 25 minutes = 2.65 Win Share

Reggie Jackson: .121 WS/48, plays 14 minutes = 2.89 Win Share

Hasheem Thabeet: .134 WS/48, plays 12 minutes = 2.75 Win Share

DeAndre Liggins: .092 WS/48, plays 8 minutes = 1.26 Win Share

Oklahoma City Total Win Share: 70.0

The Thunder would be winning 85.37% of the time against the average team. The Bobcats would be winning 29.88% of the time against the average team. Doing some simple division shows that Oklahoma City would be expected to win the game 93.7% of the time against Charlotte. If the Thunder were better than -1488, they would be a +EV bet. If the Bobcats were better than +1488, they would be a +EV bet if these are the exact lineups on the court.

Win Share Conclusion

Where Win Shares really come into play is when players are injured. If you can figure out the combination of players that will be replacing the player that won’t be in the lineup, you can really give yourself a huge advantage, particularly if in actuality, the player that is being replaced is more efficient than the player that might have better core stats, but worse efficiency.

As always, using just this one mode of handicapping isn’t going to be fool proof for sure. But for the serious NBA handicapper, the tool of Win Shares is one that you are most certainly going to want to plug into your equations to help you figure out how to beat the NBA betting lines on a nightly basis.

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