Part II: Advanced Teaser Strategy

How to Win Money Betting NFL Teasers

Teaser OddsThe theory behind “advanced teaser strategy” isn’t actually all that advanced. We already know that if a point spread is a 50/50 proposition and a 3-team 6-point teasers at +180 requires each team to win 70.95% of the time, in order profit we must find selections that moving their point spread six points increases their win rate by greater than 20.95%. It doesn’t matter what teaser subset we’re dealing with this is still true. I included the chart on the right where you can see a two team teaser at -140 require a 76.4% break even rate. BetOnline offers 2-team 7.5 point teasers at -140. So here we’d need to find a situation where moving a point spread 7.5 points increases the cover rate by 26.4%. This is very basic; the advanced part comes in developing the skills needed to calculate true odds of the modified point spreads.

Tips to Consider

  • Remember Basic Strategy – Teasers that fully cross the 3 and 7 have the highest value. Although it is possible to find profitable teasers outside this criterion, they are far and few between so we should always first focus our math on crossing the 3 and the 7 at the best odds possible.
  • The Market is Near Efficient – It’s important that you understand sharp betting sites such as Pinnacle Sports are setting odds in such a way neither side should be +EV. This is a heavy basis behind advanced strategy tips I’ll provide in the rest of this article. If this is outside your understanding read my simple article on fade the public prior to continuing.

Now that you understand teaser betting in great depth all that’s left is the strategy to quantify team’s chances of covering modified point spreads. While this topic is so advanced that an entire book could be written about it, the good news is following very simple methods provided below are enough to spot more than 60% of the profitable teasers available on a given week. This is plenty enough to get you started betting teasers profitably.

The Moneyline Method

The absolute best method for calculating the value of teasers is the moneyline method. To show how this works: week 12 of the 2011 NFL season there were two point spreads I was interested in evaluating for a potential teaser. New York Jets -9.5 at home against the Buffalo Bills and Atlanta Falcons -9 at home against the Minnesota Vikings. Basic strategy already tells me that crossing the 7 and 3 at the best odds possible is the highest value of all teasers. So here a 7-point teaser to -2.5 and -2.0 is the known highest value solution. The site offering the best odds and point spreads to do this was www.bovada.lv who offers 2-team 7-point teasers at -130. Worth noting is 5Dimes offers 7-point two team teasers at -120, however they had the lines shaded to -10.5 +115 for both teams, so here a 2-team 8-point teaser at -150 was required; obviously -130 at Bovada was far better value.

To run through the math quickly: risking $1.30 on -130 returns $2.30 ($1.30 stake + $1.00 win). So using the formula risk/return=implied probability I see 1.30/2.30=0.5652 so I need to win this bet 56.52% of the time to average break even. To calculate how often each team must cover their teased to point spread, I calculate the square root of .5652 to be .7518 (75.18%). Therefore I now need to determine if Jets -2.5 and Falcons -2.0 will each win greater than 75.18% of the time.

To evaluate this I need to take the money lines for each game from pinnaclesports.com. The reason I use Pinnacle Sports is because they take the largest wagers, have the lowest juice and pay the fastest. This is site that makes their profit by setting very accurate lines, and is therefore the best to use when dealing with the moneyline method.

At Pinnacle the moneylines were:

  • Jets -475 / Bills +380
  • Falcons -425 / Vikings +365

A quick lesson on finding no-vig probabilities: Using our odds converter enter -475 to see this has a 82.6% implied probability and enter +380 to see this has a 20.83% implied probability. The two probabilities total 103.43%. The reasons they total over 100% is because the juice (vig) which how the bookmakers make their profit. To remove the vig just divide each by the total percent market. 82.6/103.43=79.86% and 20.83/103.43=20.14% these now total 100% so we’ve determined the sharpest bookmaker Pinnacle is giving the Jets a 79.86% chance of winning the game with no point spread involved. If you do out the same math on the second game you’ll see they’re giving the Falcons a 79.01% chance of winning. Note: I found it important to share the math but also will now mention we have no-vig calculator that will do this math for you.

Consider I’m teasing to Jets -2.5 and Falcons -2.0 my calculations are not complete. I need to know the chances each team wins by exactly 1 point, or exactly two points. For this I have a very rough push chart that tells me teams favored by 13 or less win by exactly 1 about 2.3% of the time, and by exactly 2 about 2.0% of the time. Earlier I calculated the Jets have a 79.86% chance of winning so here I deduct the 2.3% and the 2.0% from that figure to calculate Jets -2.5 has a 75.56% true win probability. For the Falcons -2 I can’t deduct the full 2.0% for a win by 2 points because this is a push not a loss. 1% of that is in our -2 line where the other 1% is in the bookmakers +2 line, so I only take half credit. So here I deduct 2.3% for the loss on -1 and 1.0% for the push on -2 from the 79.01% to see Falcons -2 has a 75.71% probability.

What I just found here is a wager with small positive expectation. Remember 2-team -130 needs each team to cover 75.18% of the time to break even and I’ve calculated Jets -2.5 has a 75.56% chance and Falcons -2 has a 75.71% chance. I’ve exceeded the break even rate on both. Worth noting this does not fall under the term “wong teaser” as that system only teases +1.5 to +2.5 dogs and -7.5 to -8.5 favorites by 6 points. However, using the same information basic strategy was derived from I found a +EV bet.

Calculating Underdogs

As I mentioned an entire book can be written on teaser strategy. There are all sorts of +EV spots on the board each week when using multiple betting sites and doing simple math. This article however failed to cover how to calculate the value of teasing underdogs, so let me touch on that quickly. The advice you’ll most often find on this involves creating push charts based solely on historical data. This is a poor method because there will never be enough meaningful data to calculate things like the exact chances a +1.5 to +2.5 favorite with a total 41.5 to 43.5 wins by exactly 8 points. Likewise, pulling how often a certain subset covered the point spread and then comparing it to how often they would have covered when teased is also a poor a method. With this one you run the risk of operating off data mined variance and before long you’re making wagers similar to the Vietnamese guy at your local casino who keeps score in baccarat in order to find good bets.

As you can see the current methods used for calculating underdog teasers have issues. Unless you’re able to artificially simulate a match multiple times over, your best strategy is to use alternate point spreads from the sharpest and lowest juice site offering them. You can find current betting odds on alternate point spreads at oddsportal.com. Just be sure to follow the same math I covered in the moneyline method to remove the juice. If you’re able to find an exact alternate point spread at sharp betting site…the work is very easy. If you only find an alternate point spread close to the teased spread then you can do the same math using a broad push chart for just one or two potential margins of victory as we did when using the moneyline method.

Despite the fact there is a lot more that could be covered on this topic; this article provides everything a bettor needs to know to beat bookies via teaser betting. If you we’re confused by the simple math this article contains, I encourage you to read this again and again until it’s clear as this is certainly one of the easiest ways to profit when betting sports online. With that, I wish you the best of luck and will conclude by asking you for a small favor. The information I just covered is enough to make you a great deal of cash, please consider supporting our website by at the very least recommending our content to a friend.

Author & Professional: Jim Griffin

1 | 2 |